Avoiding Hurricanes

Many people are concerned that we're about to sail into the perfect storm. Surely you'll be crushed by five-hundred foot waves! And if a storm doesn’t get you, the Kraken will! Information is the best cure for fear, so here's a brief explanation of how storms in the North Atlantic work.

We intend to leave the US east coast by 1 June 2014 bound for Gibraltar--the entrance to the Mediterranean. This route generally takes a sailing vessel like our 34 foot Saugeen Witch (Thomas Colvin design) 30 days to complete, so for planning purposes we’ll be in the North Atlantic for the entire month of June.

Whoa! June is the start of hurricane season, are you NUTS??!!

Let's look at some statistics:

Since 1851, the month of June has seen 82 Tropical Storms and/or Hurricanes. That averages out to 0.5 per year, or one every two years (again, this is only for the month of June).

We must also consider the locations that storms tend to occur.

Based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), you can see below that likely storm locations are in the Gulf of Mexico and a couple hundred miles off the US east coast during the month of June. I’ve also included pictures of July through November for comparison. If we set sail From North Carolina with an optimistic weather forecast, we will clear this hazard zone long before a tropical storm brews in the lower latitudes.

As you can see, the chance of running into a serious storm in June is quite low. Outliers are known to happen, so storm avoidance really comes down to watching current weather forecasts and using your best friend--common sense.